And Then There Were Two...

Its funny how things work out. In early March I actually predicted that the Spurs would come out of the West and meet Miami in the Finals despite Tony Parker's ankle injury. Many thought there would be a Finals repeat or even gave the Clippers a shot, but I knew. Now that there are two, who wins it all? I've thought long and hard about this and frankly this series has so many variables that it becomes difficult to chose. Still, a choice must be made. In short, I predict the Miami Heat will be back-to-back NBA Champions in 6 games. But in detail, it is much more complicated than that.

For Miami to win: Two words: Dwyane Wade. Although clearly hurt, he will have to find a way to work it out. We saw good signs of life in Game 7 and if he is that active throughout the entire series he puts Miami in a great position to win another title. After Game 7 Wade told the media:

"There will be some moments next series where I won't be looking so great. I'm sure there will be some great headlines about myself. I'll continue pushing. I'll continue to try to do what I can to help the Miami Heat win another championship."

We know Wade has the heart of a champion. The question is: how often will that passion translate physically into his game during this series? He also won't have to expend as much energy on defense now guarding more spot up shooters rather than those that can beat him off the dribble like the guards of the Pacers.  Aside from him, Bosh also has to get going. He too showed good signs in Game 7 but surely wasn't the Chris Bosh of the regular season. I believe that Bosh can come out of his funk attributing a lot of that to having a considerably (physically) easier matchup than the physical beatdown he endured with Roy Hibbert and David West in the previous series. Over the last three years, Bosh has averaged about 23 points per game on 60% shooting from the field against Spurs. Norris Cole's ball pressure can't stop Tony Parker but he can surely do a good job guarding him. Miami will need the Big 3 and at least one more role player to consistently step up to close this series out in 6.

For San Antonio to win: Manu Ginobili's performance will be big. He has been nursing a hamstring injury but with the Spurs resting for 9 days, he will likely come back much healthier than he was in previous series. The spark and skill he can provide off the bench is almost unmatched by a Miami bench player. Tiago Splitter is definitely coming into his own and plays great defense. He isn't Roy Hibbert but he can surely protect the paint and rim for the Spurs and cause problems for the smaller Heat. The Spurs are definitely more healthy than Miami is right now which is another advantage for this extremely poised team.

Tony Parker and Tim Duncan are having great post seasons and I don't see them slumping on this stage. I wouldn't at all be surprised if San Antonio won this series and I wouldn't be surprised if it went 7 games. But all in all in my opinion, it will be the team that has the strongest and sharpest supporting cast to the superstars that will come out victorious.

The full NBA Finals Schedule is below. I will be at Game 2 so I will try to take as many pictures for you all as possible and give a better analysis of what I see from the players (and fans) witnessing a piece of this series in person.